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Hindsight is 2020: Revisiting the Marcell Ozuna Trade

by Andrew Willis
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On Saturday, Litehouse Media referenced comments made by John Mozeliak at the Blogger’s Day event regarding what trade he regrets the most in his time with the St. Louis Cardinals. The trade that Mozeliak says keeps him up at night is the trade for Marcell Ozuna in December of 2018. While we can all agree that the trade did not work out for the Cardinals, it is worth noting that the trade made sense from multiple angles at the time. 

Revisiting the Marcell Ozuna Trade

The Trade

On December 13, 2017, the Cardinals acquired Ozuna from the Miami Marlins. Ozuna was coming off an All-Star season where he hit .312 with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs. Furthermore, he won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. 

In exchange, the Marlins received pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Daniel Castro. In addition to the pitchers, the Marlins acquired outfielder Magnerius Sierra. 

This trade seemed fair on both sides. The Cardinals acquired a power bat they needed, while the Marlins received prospects as they looked to build for the future. 

How the Trade Panned Out 

Ozuna and the Cardinals

The Cardinals got two decent seasons from Ozuna. His defense was nowhere near the level it was when he won the Gold Glove. The power was not as strong as it was before coming to St. Louis. In those two seasons, Ozuna hit .262 with 52 home runs and 177 RBIs. In 2019, Ozuna helped the Cardinals end their three-year playoff drought by winning the National League Central. In the Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, Ozuna hit two home runs as the Cardinals advanced to the Championship Series. 

After 2019, the Cardinals elected not to re-sign Ozuna. It was surprising, as Ozuna had performed well enough, and the team did not have a clear answer in the cleanup spot. 

Alcantara and Gallen 

In Alcantara’s second season with the Marlins, the team reached the playoffs for the first time since 2003. Alcantara would go on to become the ace of the Marlins, winning the Cy Young in 2022 and helping the Marlins reach the playoffs again. 

Gallen made his debut in 2019 with the Marlins but was quickly traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 2023, Gallen was an All-Star and finished third in the Cy Young race. He also helped the Diamondbacks reach the World Series. 

Cardinals Pitching

From 2018 to now, the Cardinals have struggled to find consistent starting pitchers. They have seen bouts of strong pitching from pitchers like Carlos Martinez, Jack Flaherty, and Dakota Hudson. However, no one has been as consistent as Alcantara and Gallen. As the Cardinals have struggled to find consistent starting pitching, it becomes increasingly clear that trading away Alcantara and Gallen was a mistake. 

Hindsight is 2020

Alcantara and Gallen are not the only young players the Cardinals have traded away who became stars elsewhere. Randy Arozarena was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays, where he became the 2020 ALCS MVP and 2021 American League Rookie of the Year. Adolis Garcia was traded to the Texas Rangers, where he helped them win the World Series in 2023, winning the ALCS MVP in the process. 

It is easy to be frustrated with Mozeliak for making these trades. Understandably, he regrets them. The Cardinals would greatly benefit from retaining any of these players, especially Alcantara and Gallen. 

While we have the power of hindsight, it is essential to understand that, as frustrating as it was, the trade did not work out. However, it was a trade that not only made sense but also seemed like a big win for the Cardinals. 

Left at the Altar and Unavailable, but Plan C Worked 

The Cardinals entered the off-season in 2017 seeking power in their lineup. Their first choice was the reigning MVP, Giancarlo Stanton. The Cardinals and Marlins agreed to a trade that would send Stanton to St. Louis. However, Stanton exercised his no-trade clause and nixed the trade. 

The Cardinals then inquired about outfielder Christian Yelich. While the Marlins were the third-best outfielder at the time, they believed he would develop and age better than Ozuna. The Marlins, however, did not want to trade Yelich and wanted to build around him. Of course, they later changed their mind, and Yelich was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Plan C was Ozuna. This time, it worked. Not only that, but the Cardinals also found the package they were giving up to be favorable to their long-term plan. 

Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty

When it was announced the Cardinals were pursuing Stanton, many assumed Alex Reyes and/or Jack Flaherty would be headlining the package. When the Ozuna trade was announced, and neither name appeared, this felt like a bonus. The Cardinals got their power bat and held on to Reyes and Martinez, their future of the rotation. 

As we know, neither Reyes nor Flaherty panned out. Reyes missed 2017 due to Tommy John Surgery. Flaherty, although he pitched like an ace at times, including a historically good second half of 2019, was not consistent enough, and the Cardinals moved on. 

Best Laid Plans…

This trade was set to be a turning point for the Cardinals in a short period. Sadly, baseball is a cruel game. 

Mozeliak may regret this trade, but the truth is that this trade initially appeared to be a huge win. A power bat while hanging onto the future of the rotation. The beginning of a dynasty. 

Instead, it is a trade that leaves Mozeliak and Cardinal fans up at night. What could have been? There is no redo button, but it would be nice if there were one. 

Main Photo- mlb.com 

 

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