St. Louis City SC’s quest to end its’ four-game skid continues Saturday when they welcome the Supporters Shield leading Vancouver Whitecaps to Energizer Park. City will be looking to carry some of the positives forward from Sunday’s 2-1 defat against Columbus while the Whitecaps will look to build on a 5-1 drubbing of Austin FC last weekend.
Scouting the Whitecaps
It’s been a tremendous start for Vancouver to say the last. Jesper Sørensen has his side playing spectacular football at both ends of the pitch. They are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, including an aggregate victory over Pumas in the Concacaf Champions Cup, and league wins over Colorado and Austin.
The Whitecaps have scored the most goals (17), are second in the league in shots (129), second in shot creating actions (229) and have trailed for just over 23% of the total minutes played this season. Brian White has paced the attack. He’s tied for the league lead in goals (6), is third in shots on target (13) and is 5th in goals added (1.50). Emmanuel Sabbi and Sam Adekugbe have each added a pair of goals to bolster the offense as the Whitecaps continue to miss Ryan Gauld due to injury.
Courtesy Sebastian Bush
They are as equally impressive according to their defensive metrics. They have allowed the fewest shots (62), are tied for fewest goals allowed (6) and have allowed the fewest expected goals (6.9) this season. A deeper look into their chances allowed, courtesy of Sebastian Bush, shows they don’t allow a high quantity of quality chances. 51% of the chances they have allowed have been worth .05 xG or less. Through eight games they have allowed just six shots with higher than .33 xG. So it goes without saying that a City side struggling to find goals this season will really have to take advantage of chances created if they want to get anything from this match.
St. Louis Building on Positives
Riding a four-game skid has soured the positive start to the 2025 for Olof Mellberg’s squad. Due, in part to injuries, Mellberg has been moving pieces around to fill out his XI each week; looking to maximize the potential of each player. Despite the loss, Sunday saw a number of positives including the end of João Klauss’ 337 day goal drought and the emergence of Timo Baumgartl in the St. Louis backline. Célio Pompeu’s individual ability was also on display in primetime as his successful 1 v 1 battle with Steven Moreira led to an assist on Klauss’ opening goal.
In addition to those positives, City could see its’ roster bolstered with Tomas Totland and Jannes Horn resuming full training with the team. Both are expected to be available for selection which should help add balance to a St. Louis team that has been searching for an attacking mentality that doesn’t compromise defensive stability.
Starting XI and Prediction
While they are expected to be eligible for selection, I don’t know if Mellberg throws both Totland and Horn back into the XI immediately. Assuming both are on minutes restrictions, one of them may start btu I’m going conservative to start this challenging tilt. I think we’ll see a front two of Klauss and Pompeu with Teuchert underneath them. The midfield and backline should be relatively similar to what we saw last weekend with Conrad Wallem and Akil Watts as the wingbacks, Alfredo Morales and Marcel Hartel in the middle of the park and a back three of Baumgartl, Henry Kessler and Kyle Hiebert.
As for the outcome; Vancouver does have a midweek Concacaf Champions Cup fixture with Miami next week so there is a potential that they may overlook St. Louis. But given their form, the resiliency they showed against Pumas and the frustrating finishing of City, I can’t find a way the hosts take all three points. At best, St. Louis takes a draw; in my opinion. But if I was pressed into a prediction, I think it’s most likely a 2-0 City defeat at home. The Whitecaps are flying and if they are able to open up City as much as Columbus did at times, I’m afraid it could get ugly given their ability to finish so far this season.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
