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Signs of Progress or Just Another Loss?

Fourth Straight Loss May Give Mellberg Something to Build On

by Jeremy Clements
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Goals on either side of the halftime break pushed Columbus Crew to a 2-1 win over St. Louis City SC at Energizer Park on Sunday night. Steven Moreira’s equalizer in first half stoppage time gave the visitors a boost heading into the locker room after João Klauss’ opener in the 7th minute had given City the early advantage. The stalemate was broken in the 55th minute when Diego Rossi slid a shot past Ben Lundt from distance following a turnover in the middle of the park. City thought they had gotten an equalizer in the 67th minute through a header by Klauss only to have their number 9 ruled offside. Despite a late barrage from St. Louis, the Crew would take all three points and hand the hosts their fourth straight loss.

Let’s dive into the defeat and see if we see any progress towards City 2.0.

Courtesy Will Bramlett

João Klauss was City’s best player by far. No, that’s not a typo. No, I haven’t smoked or drank anything. Anyone who watched Sunday saw the Klauss of old. Not only did he snap his 337 day goal drought, he nearly and probably should have had multiple goals. He was constantly in dangerous positions and accounted for 1.67 of the clubs’ 1.95 post shot expected goals (PSxG) on the night. Four of six shots were on target and those stats don’t include his goal that was chopped off for offside. The Brazilian striker reflected on both his goal and the disallowed equalizer after the match. “We think as a team, and of course, very happy to score. I just think that with the game that we played today, we should have had more goals,” he said. “From the camera that we watch in the locker room, it looks like I was onside. I don’t know. I think maybe we have to watch from another angle or another camera. Maybe they had more angles than us, and this can explain maybe I was offside, but from the camera that we watch, I was onside.”

Célio Pompeu has likely solidified his spot in the XI for the time being. His individual play created the opportunity for Klauss’ opener as he took on and beat the reigning MLS Defender of the Year in Moreira. City’s DP striker was quick to praise is ability after the final whistle. “Célio was doing Célio things. I think he is the only player in our team that has the capacity to keep the ball that long and go 1 v 1 against players and find space for us,” Klauss said. “He was very important for us.” I love the energy, passion and tenacity Célio shows and to his credit, he was the only player to come to the North End and apologize to supporters for the loss.

Olof Mellberg’s substitution patterns continue to confuse me. For the second straight game, City was forced into a first half sub within their backline. This time it was Josh Yaro who was pulled by the medical team due to concerns of a possible concussion. Instead of calling on a few options on the bench and making a like for like change in Michael Wentzel or even Jake Girwood Reich, Mellberg opted to throw Akil Watts into the fray and move a few other players around. I understand the value of being tactically flexible, but the decision forced Conrad Wallem to move into a different role where it seemed he was not as impactful.

The other change that I found puzzling was bringing on Tomáš Ostrák for Marcel Hartel late in regular time. The desire to get fresh legs on in attacking positions makes sense. But why take off one of your most dangerous players? Would it not have made more sense to replace Alfredo Morales and keep Hartel on given the consistent pressure City had been putting on Columbus in the minutes prior to the change? Maybe I’m missing something but it’s not the first time this season we’ve seen Mellberg make changes that were more complicated than they may need to be.

St. Louis has to find a way to finish more consistently. There’s no other way to say it. St. Louis continues to miss prime chances to score and have vastly underperformed their expected goals (xG) this season. Through eight games, only Montreal ranks worse in difference between goals and expected goals. According to data from FBref, City has 9.2 xG but has only scored 5 goals; meaning they have scored a little more than half of the goals they should have based on shot quality. Putting the Columbus match under the microscope, City had two shots classified as “great” in terms of xG. Those chances were both generated by Simon Becher, who led St. Louis with .90 xG on the night. Neither of those chances were converted. That is the season in a microcosm. City’s roster doesn’t include a prolific finisher, if the club has aspirations of making the playoffs or more they will have to make the most of these opportunities when they have them.

My biggest frustration with this loss wasn’t even the defeat. It was the way City seemed to take their foot off the gas after taking an early lead. After finding the opener, Cedric Teuchert missed a wide open shot in the box in the 13th minute. Four minutes later, Klauss put a header wide of the goal. From there, St. Louis seemed to drop off into a mid or low block which really allowed Columbus to grow into the game. Mellberg didn’t see it that way. After the match, he credited the visitors and the quality of their team while pointing instead to a lack of possession as the underlying cause. “On our possession game, our buildup, I don’t think it was great today,” Mellberg said. “We really have to look at how we can really improve there and get better movement and variation in our attacks.”

It’s not getting any easier as we look ahead to Vancouver coming to town this weekend. The Whitecaps sit atop the Western Conference and are fresh off a 5-1 win over Austin FC. They are seemingly firing on all cylinders after posting back-to-back wins in league play and knocking off Pumas in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. Mellberg seemed hopeful that the Columbus match gave his club some things to build on. “We’ve got to try to bring the positives to the performances, and the chances we created, definitely need to improve on certain other things,” he said.  Only time will tell if the gaffer is right.

Ultimately, I think we do see signs of progress despite the loss. City played on the front foot for much of this contest. Mellberg rolled out a more attacking line up and we saw lots of good things. Some real quality chances and a much better quantity of those chances as well. St. Louis was relatively solid defensively. There were moments that Columbus failed to capitalize on, but it is worth noting that 7 of their 13 chances were average or poor in quality (.06 xG or less). With several players nearing returns, City may be starting to turn a corner. The next few weeks will be telling as St. Louis hosts Vancouver before traveling to Seattle and Los Angeles. By the time Sporting Kansas City comes town we’ll undoubtedly know a lot more about this club and an idea of what they may need to do in the summer.

 

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Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.

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