St. Louis Head Coach Olof Mellberg has reiterated how important scoring will be for St. Louis City SC in 2025 on multiple occasions this preseason. The team closed out their slate of preseason games with just 8 goals tallied across the six friendlies, so it was top of mind at Sunday’s City Live event as fans asked what area he’d like to see improved upon before the season opener. “I think improvements; going forward. We want to create more chances and score more goals and we have to,” Mellberg said. “We haven’t created enough during preseason,” he continued. “I think it will come, we have another week now to prepare; so really working on the details.”
The club will look to their designated player, striker João Klauss to be a key contributor if those goals will come. The Brazilian striker had City fans expecting him to build on a strong 2023 campaign that saw him tally 12 total goal contributions as the team’s target man in their first season but instead, he took a step back scoring just 5 goals in 2024. The man affectionately dubbed “Santa Klauss” by fans could be facing continued competition for his spot as the club bolstered the attack in the summer by bringing in Simon Becher and Cedric Teuchert. Those two players will undoubtedly challenge Klauss as they accounted for a combined 13 goal contributions down the stretch in 2024.
Couple that competition with a new coach who has favored a formation with two strikers in the preseason and the table is set for Klauss to rebound. But will he? I think he will; but I don’t know if that’s the question that needs to be answered. I think the question should really be, what does his level of contribution need to be for the club to have success? The graphic below is an analytic breakdown of the 2024 campaign that’ll we’ll get into as we try to answer this question.
Klauss has never been a prolific goal scorer. In his career he has only scored 10 or more goals three times, the most recent being his first season in St. Louis. So I don’t think we should be expecting him to be in the golden boot race. Instead, I’d look for him to serve as a target man who will get into dangerous spaces but also help create chances for other players; and I think that’s what his 2024 analytics tell us. Last season he was actually a better player in terms of net goals added per American Soccer Analysis. His .05 net goals added per 96 minutes was an improvement from 2023 and good enough to rank him in the top third of designated player forwards in 2024.
It should be mentioned, however, that this spike in that metric was due in large part to a shift in focus. In 2023, Klauss’ net defensive goals added per 96 minutes was good enough to put him in the top 20% of DP strikers. That contrasts heavily with what we saw in 2024 where he fell in the defensive metrics when it comes to interrupting play but found himself in more offensive situations; he was just not able to finish them. In 2024, he was among the top 20% of DP strikers in shots but in the bottom 25% when it comes to shots on target; which must change if the club is to have success and we’ll get back to that.
As for the change in tactical focus; I think that speaks to the evolution of City. Under Bradley Carnell the team was all out pressing as much as possible; which translated to Klauss being a great interruption. That changed when Carnell was dismissed as interim manager John Hackworth took a more pragmatic and opportunistic approach to the press; which gave the Brazilian the opportunity to focus more on being in positions to receive passes, thus creating chances more often.
We also can’t have this conversation without addressing the other attributes that give Klauss an advantage, his size and athleticism. While he may not have the flair of a Célio Pomepu or the silky footwork of Marcel Hartel; Klauss takes up space and draws defenders attention. It’s part of the value he has brought as City’s target man over the clubs’ first two seasons. I don’t think that changes under Mellberg. Based on what we saw in the matches available at the Coachella Valley Invitational; he will still be expected to serve multiple roles in the offensive build up. At times we’d see him run in behind trying to tack down long passes in the final third; while other times he would come back to receive a pass to play in someone making an overlapping run.
Anther caveat as we compare Klauss’ play over the first two seasons is squad health and depth. There was a stretch of several matches in 2024 where Klauss was the lone focal point of the attack due to injuries. This meant he was often running wide, not able to remain central and having issues finding himself in dangerous positions consistently. I don’t anticipate that being an issue this season as the club has added depth in several positions that should allow us to maintain an attacking presence on the pitch.
Finally, there’s the outside conversation amongst fans if Klauss deserves that DP tag. The circumstances of Klauss getting that classification due to the term of his contract and fee related to his transfer to City coupled with him being ineligible to be bought down due to MLS rules has frustrated some. The Brazilian is the lowest paid DP striker in MLS per data released by the MLS Players Association last fall. But with that tag comes lofty expectations that som feel he has not met consistently.
All this being said, I think that those expectations needed to be tempered. As I said earlier, Klauss has never been a consistently prolific scorer; so he probably wouldn’t have ever been in category of an elite MLS striker. I think he’s likely an above average DP who needs to regain some confidence and work his way into form. I think that happens in 2025. So what would be success and what should we expect from Klauss in 2025?
Based on all the analytics, I think we’ll see somewhere between 10-12 goals and 15-20 total goal contributions. That may not be enough for all to consider him a success as a designated player; but I think those are realistic and achievable targets due, in part, to the upgraded talent around him. He won’t have to be the focal point and shouldn’t be the only one netting goals for City. Hartel, Teuchert, Becher, and Löwen; just to name a few, should be big contributors as the season plays out. But depth aside, I expect Klauss to continue putting himself in dangerous positions and rediscovering his scoring boots. So I predict that we see more goals than coal from Santa Klauss in 2025.
City kicks off the 2025 season at Energizer Park on Saturday, February 22nd against Colorado Rapids.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
