As the start of the 2025 MLS season approaches we’ve seen a wide variety of predictions on where St. Louis will finish the upcoming season. With predictions from 15th all the way to 4th place in the West it seems there is no true consensus of how the Boyz in Red will perform this season. We’ll dive into the keys for the upcoming season, but first let’s give a brief look back at 2024. In a few words, we can refer to the 2024 campaign as both tumultuous and disappointing. It was marred by injuries, a reportedly fractured locker room and the first coaching change in club history. It was that disappointment that led to the first major roster overhaul for the team as President and General Manager Diego Gigliani and Sporting Director Lutz Pfannenstiel used the summer transfer window to bring in six new players in hopes of pushing for a playoff spot. In reality; it was too late for 2024 but the additions of Marcel Hartel, Cedric Teuchert, Jannes Horn, Henry Kessler, Simon Becher and Jake Girwood-Reich in the summer set the table for 2025.
Who’s the New Gaffer?
The man at the head of that table will be new head coach Olof Mellberg. The former Swedish international takes the helm from John Hackworth who served as interim boss through the end of last season. Mellberg brings years of experience as a top flight defender in the Premier League in addition to managerial success that included leading Brommapojkarna to back to back promotions from the third division back to the top flight in Sweden in 2016/2017. It was that success combined with a commitment to developing players and and being tactically flexible that put Mellberg on St. Louis’ radar. “Most important is he was above expectations. They always overachieved. He is very good at developing players. He is very good at forming a winning team. We want to have a winning culture,” Pfannenstiel said in January. “For me one of the most important things is how he maximized the potential of the squad…to get the most out of what we have on the field or the training pitch is the key.” Getting the most out of this rebuilt St. Louis side is the goal, as the organization has made it clear that anything less than playoff qualification is a failure this season.
Smaller Retoool Ahead of 2025 Season
City continued it’s retool in a much smaller way this winter, bringing in central defender Timo Baumgartl and dynamic winger Conrad Wallem. Baumgartl has years of experience playing in the Bundesliga while the younger Wallem comes on loan from SK Slavia Prague. To make room for these acquisitions the club saw Njabulo Blom, Nökkvi Thórisson depart via loan, Selmir Pidro exit on a permanent transfer and contract options were declined on Johnny Klein and Jake Nerwinksi. Hosei Kijima is also no longer in St. Louis after he was selected by San Diego in the MLS Expansion Draft.
Welcome to City 2.0
The changes in leadership and roster tweaks won’t change the core style of the club though. “We won’t change our philosophy,” Pfannenstiel said. “It is a non-negotiable. We want to have our style 2.0, which means we want to get better with the ball, we want to tighten our defense and play attractive football.” But what will City 2.0 look like?
Well, we saw glimpses of that during the preseason. Under Mellberg’s tutelage we’ve seen City playing much more sound defensively; anchored by a three center back structure. The formation shifts situationally as we’ve seen the club play as defensively minded as 5-4-1 when protecting a lead to playing an attacking 3-4-1-2 when trying to get a foothold in the game offensively. The focus on defensive stability is a must for City; who surrendered a league high 25 points from winning positions during the last campaign.
Another noteworthy element in the preseason has been patience in possession. In 2024, St. Louis was the most direct team in attack; averaging just 2.71 passes per offensive sequence. As a result of that frantic, energy drink style attacking, City had just 17 sequences of play that included 10+ passes and included either a shot or touch in the offensive box. They did that a few times in the preseason, including the build up to Tomas Totland’s equalizer against Austin. It’s all part of Mellberg’s vision for City 2.0. “I want to keep the intensity, the energy, the identity of this club,” he said. “I would like to be more control of the games compared to last season. More control defending but also more balance in the team so we are organized in defensive transitions. So keeping that intensity, energy, hard work which is our identity; but more control of the games”.
Let’s Talk Starting XI
Versatility will be the strength of Mellberg’s side in 2025. He has shown an early affinity for players who can play multiple roles or positions depending on the formation and situations as dictated by the game. What does that mean for the starting XI? Well we know Roman Bürki is a lock in goal. As for the backline, the new gaffer’s system is reliant on center backs who are good with the ball at their feet. I think that’s why the addition of Baumgartl made so much sense. He profiles as a great distributor and ball playing defender who fits nicely on the side opposite of Henry Kessler. Dropping a stay at home, strong 1 v 1 defender between them, like Joakim Nilsson should give City a very strong defensive spine to serve as protection in front of Bürki while serving as an outlet for cycling play in the offensive half during periods of sustained possession. While many fans criticize the three-back system for being too defensive minded; it really allows you to have more attackers. This set up will allow Totland and the newly acquired Wallem freedom to push up and join the attack, creating overloads in the final third that should help bolster an attack that netted just 50 goals in 2024.
The midfield continues the theme strength and versatility as long as health isn’t an issue. When healthy, Edu Löwen and Chris Durkin should be considered the likely starters in the middle of the park. However, Akil Watts had a fantastic preseason that will likely earn him an opportunity to start the season as Durkin works his way back to full fitness. Behind them is the returning Tomáš Ostrák, who was one of the limited bright spots before an injury ended his season. Other depth pieces include Jay Reid who is recovering from an offseason training injury and Rasmus Alm; both who I’d expect to slot in as wingbacks given their high work rates and offensive skillsets.
Getting into the final third, I fully expect to see Marcel Hartel in a more central attacking role this season with Cedric Teuchert either beside him or slightly in front of him beside João Klauss. Hartel, Teuchert and Becher sparked a late surge by the club as they were on a 1.5 points per game pace at the end of the season. Teuchert was producing at an MVP level clip in terms of goal contributions per 90 and Hartel wasn’t far behind with a total of 8 goal contributions in 9 MLS appearances. Becher also produced at a fantastic rate, finishing with four goals; just one behind Klauss in that category. In fact, given Becher’s strong preseason, it wouldn’t shock me to see him above Klauss in the opening depth chart as St. Louis’ DP #9 still looks to rediscover his scoring touch. Beyond those three there’s the return of winger Célio Pompeu following his injury last season and Indiana Vassilev. Pompeu adds aggressive and dynamic attacking ability while Vassilev brings composure and high intensity of his own to the pitch. I’ll elaborate more on what Célio brings to the squad in a future post, but he is certainly one to watch in 2025.
If I had one concern about depth, given the fact that we didn’t see Durkin in the preseason and know that Girwood-Reich is recovering from knee surgery it’s the center midfield. We have yet to get any news on a potential deal for trialist Alfredo Morales; who looked good in his appearances at the Coachella Valley Invitational; leaving just Watts and Ostrák as the potential replacement pieces should we suffer an injury in the middle of the park.
I didn’t want to completely disregard the three MLS Super Draf picks City made earlier in the offseason. Emil Jääskeläinen, Joey Zalinsky and Colin Welsh were selected by the club. I didn’t see any of them making a big enough impact in the limited preseason action we saw; but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jääskeläinen or Zalinsky end up at City 2.
Finally, The Projection
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for sticking with me. I promise my rambling won’t continue much longer. We’ve seen varying preseason rankings. MLS “experts’ predicted an 11th place finish for City. Individual writer rankings varied from 4th to 15th in the West with the league also placing us 16th in the preseason power rankings. The Soccerwise guys also pegged City to finish somewhere between 5th-7th in the West. But where do I see us finishing?
Winning the whole damn thing.. ok, I’m kidding. City isn’t a Shield contender in my opinion. I don’t think we’re quite to the level of Seattle, LAFC or a healthy LA Galaxy squad. But I think we’re getting closer. I think City is firmly in the playoffs. Barring another injury crisis and the complete failure of Mellberg; I don’t see this club finishing worse than 6th in the West. I think what we saw at the end of 2024 was real. I believe that the additions of Baumgartl and Wallem combined with a full season of Hartel and Teuchert raise the bar for this team and that the new tactical structure we’ve seen in the preseason will fix the leaky defense of years past. So let’s make the playoffs and then give ’em a run for the MLS Cup. Oh, and don’t forget; there’s the US Open Cup too! There’s a real chance at some hardware..but we’ve got plenty of time to talk about that.
As always, thanks for reading. Feel free to jump into the conversation below or you can find me on Facebook, X or Bluesky.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
