St. Louis City SC are heading to the West coast for the second weekend in a row but this time they hope to return home with all three points. After a defensive draw in San Diego, City are set to face the defending MLS Cup Champion Los Angeles Galaxy. This Galaxy side, however are much different and in much worse form than the one that lifted the cup just months ago.
The hosts’ slow start to the season continued with a 1-0 loss to Club Sport Herediano in the Concacaf Champions Cup on Tuesday night in Costa Rica. It was just the latest in a poor run of results for the defending cup champions who are winless in MLS play; scoring just one goal and conceding four in league play. The disappointing start to the title defense is a result of roster turnover and a myriad of injuries to a few key players. Dejan Joveljić, Gastón Brugman, Mark Delgado and Jalen Neal all departed the club in the offseason while new acquisition Matheus Nascimento joins Riqui Puig and Joseph Paintsil on the injured list ahead of the upcoming tilt with St. Louis.
St. Louis’ start hasn’t been substantially better as the third-year club has been strong defensively but has yet to score a goal across its’ two matches. Manager Olof Mellberg has been pleased with his backline but is still looking for more from his squad in the final third as the team has had just seven shots on goal, registering just 2.0 expected goals (xG).
Despite the inconsistency, I think City has a prime opportunity to get its’ first win of the season.
Los Angeles’ roster is depleted and they will be on short rest. Not only did Galaxy lose on Tuesday night, they had to fly over 3,500 miles back home; roughly a six hour journey. As we’ve found out from the players in St. Louis, return travel can have an impact on recovery time. This should benefit City as several of Los Angeles’ key players appeared for at least 70 minutes in the loss in Costa Rica. Gabriel Pec and Maya Yoshida both went the distance in the match while Marco Reus and Christian Ramirez registered 78 and 72 minutes respectively in a losing cause. The latter two on that list are on the wrong side of 30; so it’s likely that they see reduced minutes. It’s certainly an early test for Galaxy’s depth; this will be their 3rd game in 8 days. If City can come out on the front foot, I think they can come out of LA with all three points.
We shouldn’t see a repeat of last weekend in terms of pressure on the ball. San Diego’s press was unreal against City last weekend. It completely shut down any transition opportunities and caused St. Louis to commit a number of unforced errors; leading to the heavy difference in possession. The good news is that Galaxy are not a pressing team. In fact, they seem to be the exact opposite statistically. Passes per defensive action (PPDA) is a measure used to indicate how intense a team’s pressing is. Over their first two matches Los Angeles’ average PPDA is 21.3, the lowest in the league. This should mean that St. Louis has plenty of opportunity to connect passes and generate some meaningful possession. The question is, will they know what to do with the ball, once we have it? And, will City find their scoring boots?
Speaking of scoring boots, Galaxy haven’t found theirs either. Coming into the weekend, the hosts have generated just 1.6 total xG this season. They have registered a total of 16 shots in league play and their passing has generated only .99 expected threat (xT). Despite some of those numbers, LA isn’t a team afraid of the ball as they are averaging about 48% possession in MLS play this season. If St. Louis’ defense plays up to the standard they’ve established thus far, it could be another frustrating evening for Galaxy at home. I think it’ll all come down to what tactics Mellberg employs.
City’s getting healthier. According to reports out of training this week, St. Louis is on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to squad health. Chris Durkin and Célio Pompeu are available after logging minutes last weekend. Timo Baumgartl is also set to return to availability after an illness kept him out of the squad in San Diego. Tomáš Ostrák, Joey Zalinksy, and Michael Wentzel also rejoin the list of players vying for a spot on the match day squad after appearing with City 2 last weekend; so Mellberg will have a bevy of options as the team heads West.
Let’s talk XI and predictions. I think we’ll see minimal changes heading into the clash in LA. I believe that City will want to start fast in this match, so I’m sticking with Conrad Wallem at left wing back. I think he had a few good moments in San Diego and I’m curious to see what he can do with more time and space.
The only two changes I expect are Chris Durkin for Akil Watts in the midfield and João Klauss stepping in for Simon Becher at striker. I think we’re starting to see some of the things that make Klauss a valuable asset in attack. His size and ability to hold up play can make a world of difference in the build up. I think we’ll see Cedric Teuchert alongside Klauss with Simon Becher coming off the bench as Teuchert works back to full fitness.
As for Durkin, I think he steps in to try and add a bit more stability in the midfield. I don’t think the struggles in the middle of the park in San Diego were the result of Watts’ play. That said, I think Durkin offers a little bit more control in the midfield and I’d like to see how he does in this system in a starting role.
I’m going with a City win. That’s right, I’m going to ignore my 0-for-2 start in prematch predictions and pick St. Louis to earn a tough win away from home. I don’t think this will be an easy match; despite everything I said above. This team is still working on figuring out this new system and how to play it in the final third. I think this game will be close and likely come down to a second half goal. Prediction: City win 1-0 with a late goal from João Klauss.
St. Louis City SC takes on Los Angeles Galaxy at Dignity Health Sports Park on Sunday at 6 p.m. CST.
As always, thanks for reading! Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions with me in the comments here or find me on X or Bluesky.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
