St. Louis City SC will face an opponent coming off a midweek fixture for the third time in four weeks when they welcome Seattle to Energizer Park on Saturday night. The Sounders were bounced from the CONCACAF Champions Cup by Cruz Azul on Tuesday night in a match that saw both Paul Arriola and Jordan Morris suffer injuries. City, meanwhile, are looking to keep the momentum going after posting a 3-0 win over Los Angeles last weekend. I don’t know if it’ll be easy, but let’s dive into why I think it’s another prime opportunity for St. Louis to grab some points early in the season.
We’ll get the obvious out of the way first: Seattle is on short rest and has a banged-up squad. This will be Seattle’s 5th game in 15 days and the Sounders are expected to be without Morris, Arriola and Pedro de la Vega, who was hurt in their clash with LAFC last weekend. Morris leads the team in both goals and expected goals (xG) and is second on the team in shots so far this season. Arriola was still working into form with Seattle after being acquired from FC Dallas in the transfer window.
In addition to the injuries a few other key pieces of the Sounders’ attack will be on tired legs. Cristian Roldan and Albert Rusnák both played the full 90 minutes while Jesus Ferreira logged 64 minutes in the loss earlier this week. The injury to Arriola also forced Brian Schmetzer to call on Paul Rothrock earlier than he may have planned as the winger had to come on at the half for Seattle against Cruz Azul.
The fatigue and injuries shouldn’t fully count the Sounders out though. Seattle ranks 7th in shots and 2nd in shots on target among MLS clubs this season. They are tied for 4th for passes into the penalty area and have logged the 5th most shot creating actions. All of this adds up to an attack that is 6th in the league in open play xG and 9th in total possession. They are comfortable on the ball and will find ways to break St. Louis down if given the chance.
That doesn’t mean it’s all doom and gloom for the hosts. St. Louis has a wave of momentum coming into this one. City bagged three goals away from home last weekend and should be in good spirits with a relatively healthy squad. With the exception of Rasmus Alm and Jake Girwood Reich most other players should be fit for selection. The squad will get a boost however, as Mellberg confirmed on Friday that both Joakim Nilsson and Kyle Hiebert would be available for selection. Nilsson has missed the first few games of the campaign after suffering an injury in the final preseason game while Hiebert’s participation was in question due to illness earlier in the week.
Health aside, St. Louis is also boasting the only defense that has yet to concede a goal this season. City has been very good at limiting opposing teams’ quality chances, as reflected by their 2.9 xG against. That breaks down to .07 xG per shot, which is the 2nd best in the league. Led by Henry Kessler, the defensive unit has allowed just 9 shots to reach Roman Bürki; the 3rd fewest shots on target allowed in the league through three matches. Seattle’s depleted attack may have a tough time if Mellberg’s men are in form defensively.
The offense is the biggest question mark as St. Louis returns home. Despite scoring three goals against Galaxy, City has yet to prove they can consistently find the back of the net in Mellberg’s system. The club has generated the 7th most shots (40) but registered just the 15th highest xG (4.0), so it’s a high volume without great quality in terms of opportunities for the City attackers thus far. A tired Seattle side could mean both higher volume and quality at the weekend for St. Louis.
Finally, and probably the least scientific supported of all; Seattle is the only MLS team that St. Louis has played multiple times and not beaten at least once. City is 0-0-4 across all competitions in the clubs’ young history. If there was ever a better time to get that first win, it’s now. I think the odds are in our favor in this one.
Now for the XI and my prediction.
Not much explanation needed for this one. I’m making just a single change after the vicoty in Los Angeles. It’s not performance related either. With Hiebert dealing with an illness, I’m slotting Baumgartl into the back line in his place.
I think this is close to the best XI that City can put out at any given time. There is plenty of depth on the bench to make meaningful substitutions if needed and it allows for City to have skilled players in every area of the pitch.
As for the result, I’m calling for another clean sheet and a City win at home. I think St. Louis rounds into form after their road trip and builds on what we saw offensively en route to a 2-0 win at Energizer Park. As for the goals? I’m going with João Klauss and Marcel Hartel to each get onto the scoresheet in this one.
Kick off is slated for 7:30 p.m. on Saturday night; I’ll see you at the Park.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
