The trade deadline deal that sent veteran defenseman Justin Faulk from St. Louis to Detroit on March 6 looked like standard salary-cap housekeeping at the time. The Blues offloaded experience and cap space in exchange for Detroit’s 2026 first-round pick (unprotected), a third-rounder from San Jose, prospect Dmitri Buchelnikov, and defenseman Justin Holl. Nothing flashy. Just another quiet move in Doug Armstrong’s patient rebuild.
Six weeks later, that first-rounder has taken on an entirely different complexion.
Detroit’s season officially flatlined short of the Eastern Conference wild-card spot, and the Red Wings’ nosedive has quietly transformed the Blues’ acquired pick into one of the more compelling assets still floating around the NHL. What was widely projected as a mid-to-late first-round selection in March now carries a realistic ceiling that no one saw coming: as high as third overall.
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is set for May 5, involving the 16 teams that miss the playoffs. Seeding is determined in reverse order of the final standings, with two separate draws deciding the top two selections. The key restriction—no club can climb more than 10 spots from its natural position—keeps the drama alive but contained.
Right now Detroit sits in a tightly bunched group near the top of the non-playoff standings alongside the New York Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Washington Capitals. That cluster places the Red Wings roughly 13th to 15th in reverse-order lottery order. Should the Islanders, Blue Jackets, and Capitals all finish ahead of them in the final two days of the regular season (April 15-16), Detroit’s natural slot drops lower. From there, a single lottery win could vault them the full 10 spots allowed—to third overall.
For the Blues, that scenario turns a projected mid-20s pick into a potential franchise-altering selection. The swing in value is unmistakable.
And this year’s draft class at the top end is deep enough to make that upside matter. NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings highlight dynamic, play-driving forwards and high-ceiling defensemen. Gavin McKenna, the explosive winger many view as the consensus No. 1 prospect, headlines the group. Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg, a skilled and consistent producer out of Frölunda, is drawing strong interest as well. On the blue line, talents such as Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, and Carson Carels project as legitimate top-eight candidates.
Armstrong has built his reputation on exactly this kind of asset management—trading veterans for futures that quietly appreciate over time. The Faulk deal was never meant to be a blockbuster; it was designed to stockpile picks and prospects without sacrificing the present too dramatically. Yet the Red Wings’ collapse has handed St. Louis an unexpected windfall heading into the lottery.
Detroit wraps its season with games at Tampa Bay on April 13 and at Florida on April 15. Every remaining result across the Eastern Conference bottom feeders will influence where that Blues-owned pick ultimately lands. What began as a modest return in early March has become one of the most intriguing first-round assets still in play.
The lottery draw is May 5.
