One hundred, twenty-five days. It has been 125 days since the last meaningful game for St. Louis City. Fans will descend upon Energizer Park early tomorrow as the club welcomes the Colorado Rapids to town for the opening match of the 2025 MLS season. Here’s what you need to know about the teams, my projected starting XI and a prediction for the match against Kroenke FC.
The Matchup
Colorado was an interesting squad last season. One of the most dynamic attacking sides who struggled to defend in transition. The Rapids, who were bounced from the 2024 MLS Playoffs after a first round loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy saw a few changes over the offseason. The club lost Jasper Löffelsend to San Diego in the Expansion draft and saw Lalas Abubakar and Jonathan Lewis each find new clubs before bolstering their squad via three trades. The Rapids sent up to $1.6M in GAM to the Seattle Sounders for Josh Atencio, added Ted Ku-DiPietro from D.C United as part of a cash trade and they acquired Chidozie Awaziem and Ian Murphy in a trade from FC Cincinnati. They opened their season on Tuesday with a 2-1 over Los Angeles Football Club in a CONCACAF Champions Cup clash that saw most of their starters playing in frigid temperatures.
St. Louis City comes into the season looking to rebound from a dismal 2024 campaign. It was a relatively quiet offseason as the club had more outgoings than incomings. The only two additions, as of this post, have been center back Timo Baumgartl and dynamic midfielder Conrad Wallem. Meanwhile, fans have said good bye to a few more players including: Indiana Vassilev, Njabulo Blom, Nökkvi Thórisson, Selmir Pidro, Hosei Kijima, Johnny Klein and Jake Nerwinksi.
City also have a new head coach, Olof Mellberg, who has brought a fresh tactical approach to the club. Switching from the “City standard” 4-2-3-1 to Mellberg’s 3-4-1-2 has been the adjustment of the preseason and it will get it’s first test against a Colorado team that was very good last season. Expectations are high for St. Louis who finished 12th in the West in 2024; Mellberg’s men will be looking to start the season on the right foot in front of a cold but raucous Energizer Park.
Olof’s First XI
It’s going to be interesting to see who cracks Mellberg’s first starting line up. I’ve tossed my best guess into this post and I think it could be fairly accurate given a combination of squad fitness and what we saw in the preseason. Let’s dive into it.
The most obvious pick is whose between the sticks. It will, without question, be the club’s captain Roman Bürki playing in goal. In front of him I suspect we’ll see a back three of Henry Kessler, Joakim Nilsson and Timo Baumgartl. I’m going with the newly acquired Baumgartl over Jannes Horn because I thought he was the stronger of the two in the preseason; but I could easily be wrong and wouldn’t be completely shocked to see these two flipped in the XI.
Moving to the four man midfield, I’m equally as confident that we’ll see Conrad Wallem, Akil Watts, Edu Löwen and Tomas Totland. Wallem and Totland are no brainers; I think Totland could be one of the breakout players for the club this season and Wallem is poised to surprise the league with his dynamic play. Löwen is also a given in this squad. Typically, I think we’d see Chris Durkin beside Löwen but with him still not at full fitness, I think Akil Watts slides into this spot.
Finally, it’s time to talk about our front three. Marcel Hartel should be a focal point in the attacking third linking up play as our central attacking midfielder. He should have plenty of freedom to make line breaking passes while facilitating our offense. The front two leading the line for City against the Rapids will likely be Simon Becher and João Klauss. With Cedric Teuchert just returning to the team after getting his green card it’s doubtful he can play a full 90 minutes. I’d typically favor him to be in one of the two striker roles but I think its more likely be comes off the bench in this one.
The Styles of Play
Chris Armas’ Rapids side was one that I’d describe at strong opportunistic pressing. In 2024 they the 6th lowest pressing side in terms of PPDA per Opta with 13.1 passes allowed. They used those opportunistic presses to try and spring counter attacks as they trended slightly toward the fast and direct style of play last year with Rafael Navarro and Djordje Mihailovic forming a strike partnership that accounted for 37 goal contributions. Like St. Louis, they’ll be looking to be better defensively after conceding 60 goals last season. That’s where the partnership of Awaziem and Murphy will be key in this one for Colorado.
St. Louis is more of a mystery. This will be the first test for Mellberg in the MLS and the expectation is to see a team that is more responsible defensively. That doesn’t mean the pressing that City has been known for over its’ first two seasons is going away. It just won’t be an all out pressing for the entire match that we saw under Bradley Carnell. It will be a more calculated press that looks to force mistakes. Another element that I expect to see is the utilization of newly found width with our wingbacks running down the wings. Quick switches of play could either render the Rapids press ineffective or help our attackers find space by running in behind as that defense moves around. Mellberg said they want to be “unpredictable” and early in the season, I can comfortably say they will be.
The Result
Now it’s finally time to get what you came for: my predictions.
It’s the first game of the season. I don’t expect to see technically brilliant play Saturday night. I think we’ll see gritty performances as the players shake off rust and work to get into form while building relationships on the pitch. I think City holds a slight advantage coming into this match as the Rapids are on short rest following their match on Tuesday. A match that included most of their normal starting line up. With that edge, I think St. Louis should be able to start fast and hopefully have a late surge to either grab a winner or see out the game they are leading.
With that in mind, my prediction is:
That’s right! I’m picking a City win in the opener. I think the extra rest and the energy of a packed Energizer Park makes the difference in this one. I think we see goals from Hartel and Klauss to lift St. Louis past the Rapids.
As always, thanks for reading. Feel free to jump into the conversation below or you can find me on Facebook, X or Bluesky.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
