It’s been a frustrating two weeks for St. Louis City SC. Back-to-back shut out losses to Philadelphia and Austin have underscored a serious problem for the club this season: little to no consistent offensive output. Manager Olof Mellberg remains adamant that the club has been good enough to win games despite being blanked in 4 of 6 contests to date. “I thought today as a team, we created enough chances,” he said after Sunday’s loss. “We had a lot of entries in the final third. I thought our positioning was really good. Our game plan was good. Things were working really well. We just lacked the quality in the final third.”
Data by Sebastian Bush
With respect to the gaffer, I’m not sure the chances were good enough on Sunday nor in most of the other matches this season. Data provided by a recently released dashboard from Sebasbtian Bush reveals a much different story, at least analytically. City has created 68 shots this season, ranking them 16th in MLS. However, only 8.8% or 6 of those shots would be considered “great” in terms of expected goals. Going a step further, only one of those six was converted into a goal. The other five included a pair of efforts that were saved by opposing keepers and three that missed the goal completely.
That conversion rate is a letdown. Compounding the issue further, City has a large volume of shots that had a below average xG. Each red dot on the graphic indicates a recorded shot that was considered “poor” in terms of xG. I’ll spare you from counting. 30 of 68 attempts (44%) fall into that category. Keeping in mind that xG is calculated by assigning a value to each attempt representing the probability of the shot resulting in a goal based on factors like location, angle, and type of shot; it doesn’t mean City isn’t getting into good areas. It just means the timing of the shots is often questionable or coming in situations where a clear shot on goal may not be possible.
So how does this get turned around? Not by sacking Mellberg as some social media circles have proposed in recent days. Instead, I think its minor tweaks in both tactics and personnel. In recent weeks, we’ve seen City look to play a number of balls forward to Simon Becher and Cedric Teuchert who started as lone strikers against Austin and Philadelphia respectively. Neither of them were impactful in that role. So, I think the solution starts with playing João Klauss. He has the strength to win duals and has demonstrated an ability to receive and hold up play consistently. Klauss was among the best forwards in terms of the receiving measure of goals added (g+) in 2024.
Next, put another player in the midfield with Marcel Hartel. Whether it’s Teuchert, Becher, Célio Pompeu or Rasmus Alm; these dynamic playmakers can make dangerous runs off Klauss and link up with Hartel in transition to create that consistent attacking threat Mellberg’s side has missed so far. Fans were reminded Sunday of Pompeu’s fearlessness and aggression as he didn’t back down from taking on defenders 1 on 1 and created several dangerous opportunities as Austin sat in a low block.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly; figure out what to do at right wing back while Tomas Totland is out. Philadelphia had their way with Akil Watts and Austin didn’t shy away from going after Kyle Hiebert. Both of them have skillsets that make them valuable assets to City; but neither have proven capable of filling the role Mellberg asked Totland to play: that of a playmaking winger who helps the offense flow while remaining responsible and reliable defensively. If that piece of the puzzle isn’t sorted, City becomes more predictable and the offense seems to sputter.
The other issue that Mellberg needs to figure out is how to get the team playing forward more. Based on passing data from the dashboard, City has had less than 20% of it’s shots come as a result of a progressive pass. Too often, City is looking backwards first or relying on crosses to generate offense. If Mellberg can restore some confidence in his players to look forward and attempt to play through balls into space for his forwards to run onto; I think they could unlock Hartel and other creative players in the midfield.
While it’s been a disappointing start for City offensively, the good news is it’s only six weeks into the season. Mellberg has time to adjust and get this team playing a more balanced game. It’s safe to say fans are thrilled with the defensive play but that doesn’t mean they don’t want to be entertained with some goals as well. The club has a trip to Kansas City this weekend, a side that has allowed 12 goals; so its a chance for City to build a little confidence before coming back to Energizer Park to face Columbus on April 13th. I’ll give it a few more weeks before I start ringing alarm bells.
Taking his passion for soccer and St. Louis to the next level, Jeremy aims to provide analytical coverage of all this St. Louis City SC.
