When the news broke in early 2021, no one could believe it. Nolan Arenado was going to be a St. Louis Cardinal. What had seemed like a dream only was now a reality. However, four years later, things have changed. The Cardinals have been trying to move Arenado to get more at-bats for the younger players as the franchise begins a retooling/rebuild. Alas, a trade has not been found. It now appears 100% certain that Arenado will be a Cardinal on Opening Day. That could be good, bad, or ugly for the Cardinals.
Arenado a Cardinal: Pros
Arenado remaining with the Cardinals may not be what the organization expected or wanted. Considering John Mozeliak commented at the Winter Warmup that it was the team’s priority to trade Arenado, we can gather that Arenado still being with the team goes against its current plan.
However, there are pros to Arenado still being a Cardinal.
The Cardinals Are Better With Him
Arenado is two seasons separated from a top-three finish in the National League MVP voting. Furthermore, the two seasons between then and now have seen significant downgrades from the MVP-caliber season. The latest FanGraph projection for Arenado’s 2025 season suggests a dip in production to continue (.257 average, 22 home runs, 82 RBI).
However, those numbers, or similar, would help the Cardinals remain competitive in a Central Division that is up for grabs. All five teams have a reason (even if it is literally one reason) to believe they can claim the division crown. Perhaps Arenado, alongside continued production from the team’s youth, could propel the Cardinals back into the postseason.
Better Production = Better Return
If Arenado can bounce back in 2025, that can give the Cardinals some bargaining power. A team looking to contend may be willing to pay a higher price for Arenado or at least be willing to take on more of Arenado’s $64 million salary.
Furthermore, Arenado has an incentive to bounce back himself. If he does, that could increase the number of contenders who are interested in him. More interest from true contenders could help persuade Arenado to accept a trade, which would benefit him and the Cardinals.
Arenado a Cardinal: Cons
Arenado remaining on the Cardinals could benefit them but also hurt them.
Blocking the Youth
When it seemed likely Arenado would not be a Cardinal in 2025, the potential lineup included many young players getting more at-bats. Notable, Nolan Gorman was penciled in at third base, with Brenden Donovan at second, Alec Burleson as the designated hitter, Jordan Walker in right field, Lars Nootbarr in left field, and Michael Siani in center field.
Arenado remaining a Cardinal changes that. Arenado would stay at third base. Then, it gets complicated. Gorman could move to second base, but the team will not want to remove Donovan from the lineup. Gorman could move to DH, but Burleson needs to remain in the lineup. There are different ways the Cardinals can piece their lineup with Arenado. Still, Nolan Gorman needs to be in the lineup. The organization needs to say what kind of player Gorman is. Is he a home run hitter who strikes out a lot? Can he cut down on the strikeouts and get on base more? Those answers need to be answered in 2025.
Arenado remaining on the Cardinals likely leads to the following: Arenado goes to third. Gorman goes to DH. Burleson moves to left field. This moves Nootbarr to the bench. Nootbarr is another player that the Cardinals need to figure out what they have. However, there is a greater need to see players like Gorman and Siani, as well as see if Burleson and Donovan can replicate last year’s success.
No Improvement = No Buyers
One of the things that derailed the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2010s was the inability to realize it was time to move on from Ryan Howard. The same could happen with the Cardinals and Arenado.
Arenado has three years left on his current contract. There are no opt-out options. There are no club options that can be declined. If Arenado continues to fall, the Cardinals could be stuck with him for the next three seasons. For a team looking to look ahead, that is the worst-case scenario. Sure, Arenado could move to DH or first base, but it still provides a roadblock in the organization.
For the Cardinals’ sake, Arenado cannot regress to the point of no buyers. This would not be the first time the Cardinals have been stuck with a high-priced player who is not producing (Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecil). Still, if it happened this time, it would have the most significant ramifications.
A Fan’s Plead
On behalf of the Cardinal Nation, this fan begs Nolan Arenado to have a bounce-back 2025 season. Furthermore, if it happens, this fan begs the front office to take advantage and trade him.
Toto, we are not in 2021 anymore. It is time to look to the future.
